The Ale-X-Files: Why Z-Rod Has the Same Chances of Winning a Triple Crown as I'll Have Another

With both the ABL nearing the All-Star break and the Belmont Stakes taking place this weekend, I thought it would be a good opportunity to look at The ABL Triple Crown race in the Roberto Clemente League.

As many of you probably know, I'll Have Another was a heavy favorite to make racing history this weekend with his own Triple Crown—until he was scratched due to injury.

Looking deeper into some statistics, I'll argue that Lorenzo Rodríguez may as well be scratched from the ABL Triple Crown RCL race as well. It's not his fault.

Z-Rod's numbers, numbers that we may never see again in this league (or in real-life), a hitter on pace for nearly 60 home runs and an average near .400. It's within the realm of possibility that he catches the leader in AVG and he's ahead in home runs, but it's pretty clear that unless something drastic changes, he has virtually no chance of leading the league in RBIs, and it's got nothing to do with him.

Couched deeper in this analysis is something about the value of RBIs as an evaluative tool for a hitter for those that are willing to look.

When I first looked at Z-Rod's hitting numbers, I wondered, how can a guy with 29 HR, a .385 Average, and .737 SLG, not be leading the league in RBI? Not only is he not leading, he's fifth and trailing Tom Becker, the leader, by 20. How can this be possible for the best hitter in the league, and what does he need to do to make up that ground?

My first thought was, well, maybe he doesn't hit well with runners in scoring position. Nope. He hits better with runners in scoring position producing an astounding 1.429 OPS in those situations. Compare that to the league leader in RBIs, Tom Becker, who has a 1.123 OPS with runners in scoring position. Z-Rod is actually the best hitter of the RCL leaders in RBIs with runners in scoring position.

You're probably going to guess where I'm headed next. It turns out that when Z-Rod comes to the plate, this is what he most often sees:

Of the top five RBI earners, Z-Rod comes to the plate more often with the bases empty than four of those five. Breaking it down a bit more, let's take a look at plate appearances with the bases empty for the top four RBI leaders in the RCL along with a brief glance at the three current hitters in front of them (which often includes the #9 hitter). It should be clear at that point, just what Z-Rod is up against.

4. Kieran Simmons GRE: 73 RBI,  179 of 349 (51%) PA with the bases empty.   Simmons has more RBIs than Z-Rod despite the fact that he actually has fewer opportunities with runners on overall and does not hit as well with RISP (1.025 OPS w/RISP). However, he does come to the plate with the runners often further advanced on the basepaths. He has seen RISP 91 times vs. Z-Rod's meager 58. In front of Simmons are Merril Harris, William Kirby, and Ron Hamm, all of whom get on-base at a greater than .350 clip. Simmons will continue to have a decent number of opportunities to drive runs in, but you can see just how much more efficient Rodríguez has been with RISP, trailing Simmons by just 4 RBIs despite 33 fewer chances in those situations.

3. Peter Blanchard MIN: 74 RBI, 144/329 (44%)  PA with the bases empty.  Blanchard is second to Rodríguez in hitting with runners in scoring position of the top 5 with a 1.405 OPS. Blanchard also had some great OBP guys in front of him with Will Johnson (.363), Joe Booth (.383), and Marvin Welch (.379) most of the season. The likely reason he hasn't had even more opportunities is that there's also a lot of power there (43 HR) and potential to clear the bases before Blanchard comes up. Blanchard has only hit 73 times with RISP, the 2nd lowest total of the five leaders.

2. Salvador Salgado SEA, 75 RBI 152/376 PA (40%) with the bases empty.   Salgado gets a lot of opportunities with RISP (103) and has a very low chance of coming to the plate with the bases completely empty. His OPS with RISP is one of the lowest amongst the five (.955) but it's above his norms. Salgado bats 4th and, like Blanchard, has a lot of power and OBP in front of him. Edgar Johnson (.431), Oliver Davis (.389), George Sanders vs. RHP (.402), and Dane Moore vs. LHP (.342).

1. Tom Becker MON: 90 RBI, 134/374 PA (36%) with the bases empty. Becker is going to be tough for anyone to catch. He comes to the plate with the lowest chance and regularly sees ducks on the pond. Not only that, but he has the most chances by far to hit with RISP (113). It's easy to see why. In front of him are Tim Shields (.442 OBP) and Robert Carr (.402 OBP). The other key reason these two present so many opportunities is that they have so little power (6 HR). As he bats third, the #9 hitter is also one of the three hitters in front of him and that's either Wilton Collins (.342 OBP) or António Paz vs. LHP (.294 OBP).  

Now compare them to Lorenzo Rodríguez:

5.  Lorenzo Rodríguez ANN: 69 RBI, 153/330 PA (46 %) with the bases empty.   Not only does he have the second highest percentage of empty bases, but he has, by far, the fewest opportunities with RISP (58). It comes down to the table setters in front of him. Ki-Moon Pak, who leads off against southpaws, posts an amazing OBP against LHP (.433), and Javier García, whose OBP is .350, is just a couple ticks above average against RHP. Pak would be fantastic, but he only faces lefties. Stu Barnes follows in the #2 spot, and he's also good for a .358 OBP. Hitting third, Z-Rod also has the #9 hitter ahead of him, Jeffrey Coffman (.361 OBP vs. LHP) and Loyd Christopher (.206 OBP vs. RHP). While there are some decent numbers in there, the best opportunity Z-Rod has to knock in runs are when he faces LHP. Besides LHP being more rare, he's far worse against LHP than RHP (though worse is relative), so that plays into his RBI numbers as well.

Conclusions

1.  RBIs are far less a function of the hitter himself than the hitters ahead of him, along with a little bit of luck. Tom Becker, a great hitter in his own right has not put up the numbers Rodriguez has. He owes the margin of his lead to the hitters in front of him, ideal in that they have elite OBP and have almost no power. Becker's had almost twice the chances with RISP.

Simmons illustrates the luck factor. The hitters ahead of him are not elite OBP as they are with Becker, (though they are all above average), nor does Simmons hit as well as the other hitters on this list with  RISP. However, he does come to the plate with hitters in scoring position more than most and has also had the most opportunities with the bases loaded (19 vs. Z-Rod's 4). If I had to make a prediction that anyone was going to fall off this chart at some point, it would be Simmons.

2.  Lorenzo Rodríguez, the best hitter by a good measure through the first half of the season has the odds stacked against him in in going for the Triple Crown. Even if he hits the same way the second half, it will amount to an amazing season, but he has virtually no chance to catch the rest of the leaders in RBIs. It's amazing his stellar season has kept him in it this long and he's done everything he can, including being the best hitter in the league with RISP. The lineup in front of him, above average in terms of getting on base, are not the elite OBP players that the other hitters on the leaderboard have and have given Z-Rod fewer opportunities to knock in runs. (If he continues the slump he's been in for the last two weeks, he's probably not going to last on RBI leaderboard much longer, either.)

By the numbers: In order for Rodríguez to get the Crown, he needs to have at least 21 more opportunities with men on base than Becker AND make them all count. In order for him to realistically catch Becker, he probably needs at least 50 more opportunities than Becker. If you look at the stats above, well, that's a really big number for half of a season, and it's not one he has any control over.

***
Obviously, there are a lot of other factors that could change the Triple Crown race and the way the RBI leaderboard looks, and a lot of this is intuitively no surprise to most of you. I wanted to take a look at the actual numbers involved to see how they were impacting the leaders and to see what Rodríguez needed to do in the second half to capture the ABL's Triple Crown. I was a bit surprised to find that, looking at the various factors, I don't think there's really anything at all he can do.