Divisional Series Preview: Mile High vs. Cabo San Lucas

by Tim Ervin

The Cabo San Lucas Toreros will open the 2014 playoffs at home tonight as host to the Mile High Mustangs. It is an interesting matchup between two teams that contrast each other very well. The Toreros have improved each year in the ABL—improving on their batting average, ERA, and win total in each successive season. Whether the Toreros enter the 2014 post-season as the favorite to win the Championship is debatable, but their résumé as a candidate for that title is headlined by an ABL-best 105 wins and their second straight division crown. Mile High, on the other hand, was the last ABL team to punch their post-season ticket, despite an impressive 90-72 campaign of their own. The Mustangs are celebrating their first ABL post-season entrance—a celebration that was muted by the news that the heart and soul of the team, Eric Black, was lost to an injury that will not only take him out of this series, but has seemingly ended his career.


The Mile High Mustangs have put together a team that is built on a powerful combination of pitching and defense. The Mustangs lead the ABL with a team ERA of 3.66 and a defensive efficiency of .706 for the season. However, lost in the shower of praise for the Mustang pitching is the fact that the Cabo San Lucas Toreros are second in the ABL with a 3.71 ERA. Based on ERA, these are the best two pitching teams in the entire league. But that's where the similarity ends. Whereas the Mustangs excel on defense with a league leading defensive efficiency and a league low 75 errors, the Toreros have committed more errors than any ABL teams other than the Jacks and the Crush. Further accentuating the defensive differential on these two teams is the team zone rating, where the Mustangs have posted a +58.3 (second best in the ABL) compared to the Toreros -67.8 (second worst in the ABL). Not surprisingly, the Toreros have allowed 49 more unearned runs than have the Mustangs this season.

So if both teams pitch lights out, and Mile High has the decided edge with the glove, you already know that the Toreros are the better hitting team. The Toreros rank first in the TML in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. Mile High ranks no better than eighth in any of these categories. But the Toreros are missing some key bats as the series with the Mustangs begins. Slugging catcher Carlos Martínez will be out for most, if not all of this series with a strained oblique. Martínez had 29 home runs and a .381 OBP before his injury. Dave Carlisle is also nursing an injury and might miss the first couple games of the series, and while Carlisle can't compete with Martinez for power, his .367 average and .490 OBP speak for themselves. The most recent injury was to Edward Griffith, who has been an important contributor in the back end of the rotation for the boys in blue. But you won't get any sympathy from a Mile High team that just saw their face of the franchise fall. Eric Black had a .375 OBP and 44 steals and was showing some real muscle for the first time this year, with 25 home runs before an injury ended his season and his career prematurely.

On paper, the Toreors would appear to be the favorite, particularly when you look at their 105 wins. But the Mustangs posted an impressive 7-2 record against the Toreros this year. This is a series that has all the makings of a close, low-scoring duel. Both teams feature a strong bullpen, and you can expect that to be a big factor.

Some Predictions

• There will be at least two extra inning games, and the bullpens will take them both beyond 12 innings.
• Dan Smith will be the best hitter in the series, as you might predict.
• Manuel Ruíz will not be a winning pitcher for Mile High in the series.
• But it will be Callum Ritchie that will prove to be the difference, with a key hit to win the decisive game.
• Mustangs pull off the upset with a victory late in the rubber game of the series.

Good luck to both teams.