Team Tag: Minnesota Berserkers

One season ago, the Minnesota Berserkers achieved the best record in the Clemente League, 101-61. No other team in the league had their combination of bats and arms and gloves. Their offense, led by young superstar Peter Blanchard, scored more runs than any other team in baseball, besides Seattle. Their pitching, deep with quality starters, ranked third in the league, trailing only Dallas and New York. Their defense, with a +31.3 zone rating, ranked second in the league behind Nottinghamshire.

Replicating such success is difficult. Minnesota knew that it would be a challenge to repeat as the league's best regular-season team. They knew that division-rival Montreal—the team that finished second to Minnesota in the La Russa Division but won the World Series—would be a strong competitor. The Berserkers had no illusions, but they knew that they had a strong core and felt confident that they could make adjustments as the season went along.

Nobody anticipated Minnesota to be just another mediocre team, but here they are, middle of September, sitting 26 games back of Montreal with a 71-81 record. What went wrong? And, more interestingly, where will Minnesota go from here?

Offense

Viewed one way, Minnesota ranked second last year and third this year, so the bats would not seem to be part of the problem, but that small drop in the rankings masks a larger drop off in production. Here are the runs scored per game rankings from 2012:

 1. 7.2  Seattle
 2. 6.6  Minnesota
 3. 5.8  Montreal
    ...
10. 5.0  Greenville

The difference between second and third equalled the difference between third and tenth: Seattle's and Minnesota's offenses were not simply the best in the league, they were the best by a lot. Contrast that to 2013's rankings:

 1. 6.7  Montreal
 2. 6.3  Seattle
 3. 5.6  Minnesota
    ...
11. 4.8  Carolina

This year, Montreal and Seattle have clearly separated themselves from the pack. The Berserkers are scoring one run less per game this season than last season. Their dominance last year meant that they had a long way to fall, but they have fallen. This year, the Berserker bats are good. Last year, they were great.

Before examining the players in the Berserker lineup in detail, one other point needs to be made. Minnesota's glovework has become sloppy. Where last year they ranked second in the league, this year they are below average, ranking ninth with a -7.6 zone rating.

So who's to blame?

The Lineup

Peter Blanchard

Not Peter Blanchard. Still only 19 years old, Blanchard has improved in his sophomore season. His OPS has increased from 1.097 to 1.132. His 43 home runs surpass last year's total of 40, and he is second in the ABL with 132 RBI. His first base defense sucks, but it sucked last year. He did miss two weeks of the season in June—and Minnesota did go 3-9 in his absence.

Joe Booth

What about left fielder Joe Booth? Minnesota's oft-overlooked star has been hitting at a slightly higher clip this season: .929 OPS vs. .943 OPS. His 28 home runs equal last year's total. Booth's defense, however, raises some further questions. His zone rating has declined from +9.8 to +1.0 which would seem to indicate that he has declined from good to average, but his range has improved, 1.79 to 1.93. Either (a) Booth is playing worse defense this season and Minnesota's pitchers are allowing a lot more balls hit to left field, or (b) the rest of the league's left fielders are playing better defense this season.

Bryan Gardner

Third baseman Bryan Gardner is out with injury for the rest of the season, but he missed even more time last season. He accumulated an identical 2.7 WAR over both seasons, with improved defense balancing out a slight decline in offense. In 2012, he batted .280/.361/.517 with 26 home runs and 82 RBI. In 2013, he batted .247/.344/.492 with 27 home runs and 76 RBI.

Matt Smith

Matt Smith has replaced veteran Eric Keller as the Berserker's everyday center fielder. Keller has no pop in his bat but did a good job last season of getting on base: he had only one home run, but he batted .312 and had an on-base percentage of .375. Smith has a much more balanced bat, .319/.370/.470, and combines 16 home runs with 20 stolen bases. The difference in their defensive skills resembles what was found with Joe Booth: Keller's edge in zone rating, +15.5 to +7.2, is contradicted by Smith's edge in range, 2.28 to 2.41. Overall, Smith's more powerful bat makes him the more valuable of the two.

Juan Rodríguez

While catcher Juan Rodríguez will never be mistaken for a star, he has improved slightly from last season. His OPS has increased from .686 to .723, and his WAR has increased from 1.1 to 1.5.

So that's five lineup slots where everything went well. Now for the bad news.

Marvin Welch

Marvin Welch isn't having a bad season, but last season he was spectacular. He batted .305/.402/.541, went to the All-Star game, and his 38 home runs led all ABL second basemen. Such offense more than made up for his mediocre defense, and it earned him a big payday—a 5-year extension worth $78 million. This year, his OPS dropped over 100 points. His slash line for Minnesota was .260/.364/.458, and he hit only 20 home runs—solid production from second base, no doubt, but a big decline.  Minnesota management looked at Welch—aged 33, making further decline more likely than improvement—and looked at his contract, and one month ago put him on waivers, hoping that another team would relieve them of the contract. San Francisco signed him.

Ramón Salas

Ramón Salas, 24, has taken his place at second base, and the youngster has picked up where Welch left off, providing solid production with mediocre defense. Salas is batting .289/.348/.485 in 239 at-bats with 12 home runs.

Michael Davis

Last year, Minnesota got respectable production out of their shortstop platoon. Switch-hitting Michael Davis batted .303/.371/.496 in 234 at-bats, and left-handed-hitting Chip Render batter .259/.320/.705. The two combined for 13 home runs and 74 RBI, all while playing above-average defense. This year, the defense remains, but the offense has taken a nose dive. Davis is batting .224/.277/.336 in 348 at-bats, and Render is hitting, if it can be called that, .200/.275/.283 in 205 at-bats. At 26, Render may be salvageable, but Davis is 33 and probably on the decline. Without any notable shortstop prospects in the organization, expect Minnesota to pursue a trade for a decent right-handed shortstop to platoon with Render.

Dale Watson

Last, the right-fielders and designated hitters have been huge disappointments this season. Minnesota, both this year and last, has depth at these positions and has needed depth, as injuries have taken their toll. Last season, Will Johnson, Dale Watson, and Roderick Gray split the playing time, and they put up some huge numbers:

player          AB HR   BA  OBP  SLG
Will Johnson   598 18 .303 .360 .460
Dale Watson    473 32 .288 .354 .550
Roderick Gray  251 20 .382 .437 .684

Roderick Gray

That is some huge production. When healthy, Gray out-performed Blanchard. Johnson played good right-field defense and provided balanced offense. Watson proved himself to be among the team's most valuable players. With this glut of talent, Minnesota traded the 36-year old Johnson to New York, replacing him with 27-year-old Rich Sweet, whose hitting talents were being wasted Triple-A. While Minnesota didn't expect Gray, 34, or Watson, 32, to produce at their incredible 2012-level, management certainly was hoping something better than this:

player          AB HR   BA  OBP  SLG
Dale Watson    407 18 .256 .297 .435
Rich Sweet     330 23 .300 .391 .567
Roderick Gray  262 11 .260 .347 .439

Rich Sweet

Watson's OPS (.731) barely exceeds that of catcher Juan Rodríguez (.723). Gray, who is due to make $16 million next season, has an OPS (.786) below the Clemente League average (.789). The only offensive bright spot here is Rich Sweet, who also happens to be a lead-footed right fielder. The Berserker's single biggest drop in defense this season—and the statistics are unambiguous here—came by replacing Johnson with Sweet. Perhaps this is why Minnesota traded Sweet to So Cal at the trading deadline.

Pitching

But for all the discussion about offense, it's pitching that really torpedoed Minnesota's 2013 season. In 2012, they allowed the third-fewest runs of any team in the Clemente League. In 2013, they have so far allowed the second most.

Guillermo
Martínez

No Berserker player disappointed more than 35-year-old Guillermo Martínez. Last year, he led the staff with a 3.23 ERA and a 16-4 record. He pitched 195 innings, and struck out 105 while walking 51. This year he looks like a shell of his former self. He is 7-10 with a 5.44 ERA. He's averaging just over five innings per start. His 74 walks outnumber his 56 strikeouts. Those last statistics are particularly damning and indicate a pitcher on his last legs. The reversal could hardly be more complete, and it's sad to see a team leader lose his talent so suddenly. Minnesota still owes him $10 next season. Perhaps they can find a use for him in long relief.

Jim Brady

Jim Brady, on the other hand, has had a strong season—even if his record doesn't show it. Last year Big Jim went 16-7 with a 4.17 ERA. This year he sits at 10-16 with a nearly identical 4.19 ERA. His strikeout rate has held steady, 6.08 in both 2012 and 2013, but his walk rate has improved, 2.17 to 1.49. He's also allowed fewer home runs, 25 to 18. Brady is in his prime, and the Berserkers have him signed for the next five seasons.

Signed during the off-season, veteran "You Must Be" Joe King made 21 starts and posted a 7.10 ERA before being released in August.

Chris Wine

Young sinkerballer Chris Wine came up from Triple-A last season and did a decent job at the back-end of the Berserker staff. In 20 games, he went 8-7 with a 4.70 ERA. Over 30 games this season, Wine is 11-10 with a 5.25 ERA. Both his strikeout rate and his walk rate improved this season.

Jack Hughes

Two 24-year-olds, Jack Hughes and Jim Caldwell, have bounced between the majors and Triple-A. Hughes, another sinkerballer, is 6-6 with a 5.89 ERA this season, while Caldwell is 5-2 with a 4.18 ERA. Neither looks to be a dominant starter, but both look to be valuable inning-eaters for the next few years. Young Perry Cameron has been mowing down batters in the minors, but a stint in the majors showed that he's not quite ready for the big club: he posted an 8.15 ERA over 12 games.

In fact, the Berserkers have a decent stockpile of young, mid-rotation to back-of-the-rotation starters. Along with Wine, Hughes, and Caldwell, there are a trio of 23-year olds in the minors who could soon provide help for the Berserkers: Jamie Hernández (acquired in the Rich Sweet trade), Franklin Cox, and Landon Parker.

Roy Cole

In the bullpen, Roy Cole continues to hold down the closer role. This season he has struck out 77 in 60 innings, saved 30 games, and posted a 2.10 ERA. He's 26 and is just entering his arbitration years.

J.J. Harrison, 29, is doing his job well as setup man: 2.44 ERA and striking out 93 in 92 innings. Veteran Arnold Hall, 38, however, has been a disaster—8.85 ERA—and will surely be released in the off-season. Tsumemasa Okada, 35, also appears to be on the decline: his ERA has increased from 3.28 to 4.40.

Summary

Minnesota's third-ranked offense is in its prime, which is actually a bit of a problem. There is no real reason to expect this group of players to improve much next season. Yes, Roderick Gray and Dale Watson might rebound some, and it wouldn't seem possible for the shortstops to hit worse, but it's just as likely that any such improvement would be balanced out by regressions from players like Joe Booth or the injured Bryan Gardner. On paper, the 24-year-old Ramón Salas is the only player who could be considered likely to markedly improve next season.

The Berserker minor league system will be providing little by way of reinforcements. The one position player prospect who could make an impact in the near future is 22-year-old outfielder Joe Guthrie, but he looks more likely to be major-league ready in 2015.

The core of the pitching staff, on the other hand, is young, and the Berserkers can expect improvement from pitchers like Chris Wine, Jim Caldwell, and Jack Hughes. They could use another top arm to pair with Jim Brady, but they won't have to waste money or resources chasing overpaid inning-eaters. The bullpen needs a couple more arms to complement Roy Cole and J.J. Harrison, and an improvement in defense would be a bonus to the pitching as well.

Minnesota is perhaps a piece or two short from regaining contention. Will Minnesota management make the moves and fight for the playoffs in 2014? Or will try to sell off their batters while they are still in their prime, get some quality young players into the system, and rebuild around Peter Blanchard? Either way, the Berserkers have some big choices to make this off-season and should be an active trade partner.